This service is for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. These are my opinions and observations only. I am not a financial advisor.
After a week of travel I am happy to get back to it.
I wish MARA was feeling the same way. After all, Bitcoin is back above 26,000 and keeps pushing like it wants 27,000 sooner than later.
So why is MARA moving lower and lower?
On the news front, they retired a chunk of debt last week which should strengthen their balance sheet.
That seems bullish not bearish.
They did announce a reduction in mining in August. I’m not sure that alone would drop the share price by nearly 50% from around $16 to Friday’s close of $8.67.
All of that to say, I’m not sure why the drop and there is nothing I can find that attempts to explain it.
I do have thoughts on how to trade MARA so let’s take a look at that.
The chart.
You can see the prior consolidation between $8.56 and $10.64 before the huge breakout and extended move. Those were great times.
That $8.56 level needs to hold or I think we will see MARA at $7.00 pretty quickly.
If there is a bounce at this level, my focus would shift to the trendline that needs to be broken through before more upside can be had.
How I would Trade It
My first attempt would be to trade for upside. To do that I need to see the bounce off of $8.56 and a continuation towards the trendline.
If shares do break above the recent down trend, there will be resistance above at $10.64 as well as with the 150-day and 20-day moving averages.
All three being at about the same spot is going to be a tough ceiling to break.
The good news is if shares do break through it will be a real sign of strength and you can get in for more upside with confidence.
The odds will be in your favor.
And if shares reject at this point, it is an optimal set up for a short trade with a target of returning to $8.56 and possibly $6.91 below.
Of course shares could just continue to drop, breaking through $8.56 and sinking further.
I would be patient if this happens and consider sitting out of the trade until MARA finds solid ground.
This week is going to be both interesting and most likely telling. I recommend taking your time at the start of the week, let things play out and pick a direction before diving in.
Markets and many stocks are at key levels. It should be a wild week!
See you on X and in the comments.
-Nate